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Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Data, the probability of a Fed rate cut on the CME has risen to 99.3%
BlockBeats News, September 5th: The US August non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. Before that, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 99.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.7%.
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88%.
Furthermore, derivative contracts used to bet on the Fed's policy direction show that by the end of next year, the Fed will have cut rates five times (25 basis points each time), bringing the federal funds rate from the current 4.25%-4.5% range to around 3%.
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