Goldman Sachs Previews Non-Farm Payrolls: Data Needs to Be "Substantially Surprising" to Shake Up Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for April
BlockBeats News, January 9th, Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, set to be released Friday evening, is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy, unless there is a significant unexpected outcome, as current market pricing has solidly anchored on the path of easing policy starting in mid-year.
In a research report to clients, Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm payroll employment to increase by about 70,000, in line with general expectations. Despite unofficial market "whisper numbers" implying a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the existing macroeconomic narrative.
The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.
Goldman Sachs stated that labor data would need to show a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise to significantly bring forward or push back this timing.
From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs views non-farm payroll data in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for the stock market, aligning with a scenario of continued economic expansion that neither reignites inflation concerns nor threatens the rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.
In contrast, non-farm payroll data below 50,000 would be interpreted as below the level of job growth estimates needed to sustain economic stability, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns about a sharp growth slowdown.
On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing back the expected rate cut to June. (FXStreet)
Te puede gustar
Crypto and AI: el mercado gris digital oculto de Xianyu
Cripto y IA: Puedes comprar cualquier cosa en Xianyu.
Las líneas K de la vida no pueden curar la ansiedad, y los mercados de predicción no pueden calcular el final.
La vida real a menudo se desarrolla más allá de las líneas K.
De Wuhan a Silicon Valley, Manus lo hizo en solo nueve meses.
Puedes llamarlo un “envoltorio”, pero envolvió su camino hasta Meta.

JPMorgan considers cryptocurrency trading for institutional clients: Changes loom in traditional banking
Key Takeaways: JPMorgan Chase is exploring cryptocurrency trading services for institutional clients, indicating a substantial pivot towards digital…
Llamar para unirse a AI Wars: WEEX Alpha Awakens — Competencia Global de Trading de IA con un fondo de premios de $880,000
Ahora, pedimos a los traders de IA de todo el mundo que se unan a las Guerras de IA: WEEX Alpha Awakens, una competencia global de comercio de IA con un premio acumulado de $880,000.

I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but it seems that…
I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but it seems that the content of the original article was too short…

Argentina’s Central Bank to Permit Crypto Services: A New Crypto Era by 2026
Key Takeaways: Argentina’s Central Bank plans to lift bans on cryptocurrency services in banks by April 2026. Argentine…

Rep. French Hill: Innovating U.S. Crypto Legislation
Key Takeaways Leadership in Crypto Regulation: Rep. French Hill is a pivotal figure in driving forward U.S. legislation…

President of Poland Vetos Cryptoasset Market Act Amid Freedom Concerns
Key Takeaways Poland’s president, Karol Nawrocki, has vetoed the Cryptoasset Market Act, halting the implementation of stricter cryptocurrency…

WEEX brilla en TOKEN2049 Dubai
En la conferencia, WEEX compartió ideas de punta sobre temas como innovación tecnológica, seguridad del usuario y tendencias de la industria, lanzando estrategias clave de la plataforma y atrayendo a numerosos asistentes para debates.

WEEX en Blockchain Forum 2025
WEEX debutó con fuerza en Blockchain Forum 2025 en Moscú. Como Patrocinador Gold, WEEX destacó su innovación en tecnología de trading, infraestructura de seguridad y desarrollo del ecosistema Web3.
Crypto and AI: el mercado gris digital oculto de Xianyu
Cripto y IA: Puedes comprar cualquier cosa en Xianyu.
Las líneas K de la vida no pueden curar la ansiedad, y los mercados de predicción no pueden calcular el final.
La vida real a menudo se desarrolla más allá de las líneas K.
De Wuhan a Silicon Valley, Manus lo hizo en solo nueve meses.
Puedes llamarlo un “envoltorio”, pero envolvió su camino hasta Meta.
JPMorgan considers cryptocurrency trading for institutional clients: Changes loom in traditional banking
Key Takeaways: JPMorgan Chase is exploring cryptocurrency trading services for institutional clients, indicating a substantial pivot towards digital…
Llamar para unirse a AI Wars: WEEX Alpha Awakens — Competencia Global de Trading de IA con un fondo de premios de $880,000
Ahora, pedimos a los traders de IA de todo el mundo que se unan a las Guerras de IA: WEEX Alpha Awakens, una competencia global de comercio de IA con un premio acumulado de $880,000.
I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but it seems that…
I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but it seems that the content of the original article was too short…