IOSG Founding Partner: The current phase is not the "bull market top" but the "institutional accumulation period," optimistic about the market trend in the first half of 2026.

BlockBeats News, December 21st, IOSG Founding Partner Jocy posted on social media, stating, "2025 is the darkest year in the cryptocurrency market, but also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, and most people are still using old-cycle logic to view the new era. Looking back at the 2025 cryptocurrency market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutions holding 24% of the market, while retail investors exit by 66%, completing the turnover of the cryptocurrency market. Although BTC experienced a 5.4% decline in 2025, it hit a historical high of $126,080 during the period. Market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions. Institutions continue to accumulate at the 'high' levels because they are not focused on the price but on the cycle. While retail investors are selling, institutions are buying. The current phase is not the 'peak of a bull market,' but the 'institutional accumulation period.'

In November 2026, there will be midterm elections. The historical pattern is 'policy-first in election years,' so the investment logic should be as follows: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, indicating a favorable market trend; the second half of 2026 will see increased political uncertainty and volatility. However, risks such as the Federal Reserve policy, a strong U.S. dollar, possible delays in market structure legislation, continued Long-Term Holder (LTH) sell-offs, and uncertain midterm election results still exist. Yet, the flip side of risk is opportunity. When everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.

Short-term (3-6 months): Consolidation in the range of $87,000-$95,000, with institutions continuing to accumulate

Medium-term (first half of 2026): Driven by policy and institutions, targeting $120,000-$150,000

Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, awaiting election results and policy continuity

This is not the top of the cycle but the beginning of a new one. 2025 marked the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the cryptocurrency market. Despite BTC's negative annual return, ETF investors have shown strong HODL resilience. While 2025 appeared to be the worst year for cryptocurrencies, it actually represents: the largest-scale supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation willingness, the most clear policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvements. Although the price dropped by 5%, ETF inflows were $25 billion, indicating a positive outlook for the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: progress in market structure legislation, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity post-midterm elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of growth. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, the old valuation logic becomes obsolete, and new pricing power is reestablished."