Shitcoin is Dead, Equity Coin is Rising

By: blockbeats|2025/11/27 20:30:01
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Original Article Title: The Day of Reckoning for Tokens & Stonkification of DeFi
Original Article Author: Patrick Scott, Dynamo DeFi
Original Article Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

The day of reckoning for the crypto industry has finally arrived.

Over the past five years, tokens have enjoyed what I would politely call a state of "speculative demand far exceeding fundamentals." Less politely, they have been severely overvalued.

The reason is actually quite simple: there are not many fundamentally sound liquid assets in the crypto industry. Therefore, investors have had to seek exposure through the assets they can access, which are typically Bitcoin or shitcoins. Along with retail investors hearing stories of "Bitcoin millionaires," they have hoped to replicate those returns through investing in newer, smaller tokens.

This has led to a demand for shitcoins far surpassing the actual supply of shitcoins with solid fundamentals.

First-Level Effect

During times of market euphoria, you could buy any asset at will, and a few years later, you would achieve astonishing returns.

Second-Level Effect

The business model of most projects in the industry (if you can call it a business model) revolves around selling their own tokens rather than relying on actual revenue tied to their product.

In the past two years, the shitcoin market has experienced three events with disastrous consequences:

1. The Rise of "Pump Farms" and Other Token Launch Platforms

These platforms have "commodified" the issuance of new tokens, making it overly common, leading to attention being diverted to millions of assets. This diversification effect has prevented the top few thousand tokens from continuing to attract concentrated inflows, disrupting the wealth effect typically seen with Bitcoin halving.

1_0

Many days earlier this year, Pump platforms were listing over 50,000 tokens daily.

2. Some Crypto Assets are Starting to Have Real Fundamentals

Some tokens (such as HYPE) and new IPO projects (such as CRCL) are starting to show true fundamentals. Once assets supported by fundamentals appear on the market, it becomes difficult to bet on tokens that are only backed by a whitepaper.

Shitcoin is Dead, Equity Coin is Rising

Hyperliquid holders' monthly income often exceeds $1 billion

3. Meanwhile, Tech Stocks Outperform the Crypto Market. In many cases, stocks related to artificial intelligence, robotics, biotech, and quantum computing have outperformed the crypto market. This leaves retail investors wondering: why risk investing in meme coins when "real" companies are providing higher returns with seemingly lower risk? Even NASDAQ's performance this year has surpassed that of Bitcoin and meme coins.

What Are the Results?

· Underperforming meme coins have become a "graveyard";

· Teams are fiercely competing in an increasingly scarce capital pool;

· Experienced crypto investors have also become overwhelmed, searching for investment directions like a headless fly.

Ultimately, tokens either represent equity in a business or they are worthless. They are not some magical new thing that gains value just by existing.

If you stop seeing tokens as something cryptic and instead view them as assets representing a company's future cash flow, everything will become clearer.

But you might argue, "Dynamo, some tokens do not grant rights to future cash flow! Some tokens are utility tokens! Some protocols have both tokens and equity!" But you are mistaken. These tokens still represent future cash flow; it's just that the associated cash flow happens to be $0.

In the end, tokens either provide equity in a business or they are worthless. They do not automatically gain value through "existence" or "community" as many people believe.

It should be noted that this view does not apply to network coins like Bitcoin (BTC) as they are closer to the characteristics of commodities; what we are discussing here are protocol tokens.

In the near future, the only DeFi tokens with real value will be those that exist as quasi-equity tokens and meet the following two conditions:

1. A claim on protocol revenue;

2. Protocol revenue sufficient to make it an attractive value proposition.

Retail Investors Are "Breaking Up" with the Crypto Market

Retail investors are temporarily saying goodbye to the crypto market.

Some top KOLs are shouting "crime is legal," yet they are surprised that people are reluctant to become "victims of crime."

As of now, retail interest has waned for the vast majority of tokens.

In addition to the reasons mentioned earlier, another significant factor is: People are tired of losing money.

1. Overinflated Promises: The value of many tokens is built on promises that cannot be kept.

2. Oversupply of Tokens: The rise of memecoin issuance platforms has led to a severe oversupply of tokens in the market.

3. Extractive Tokenomics: Industry tolerance for valueless tokens has led retail investors to rightly believe they are destined to "buy the dip."

What is the result? Those who would have bought crypto assets are now looking for other outlets to satisfy their "gambling desires," such as sports betting, prediction markets, and stock options. These choices may not be wise, but buying most altcoins is not a great idea either.

But can we blame these people?

Some KOLs discuss "crime is legal" on one hand, yet are surprised that people are unwilling to be victims.

This public apathy towards the crypto market is also reflected in interest in the industry. This year's enthusiasm is far from reaching the heights of 2021, even though the current fundamentals are better than ever and regulatory risks are lower.

I also believe that ChatGPT and the subsequent AI hype have dampened people's enthusiasm for cryptocurrency by showing the new generation what a true "killer product" looks like.

Over the past decade, cryptocurrency enthusiasts have been talking about the cryptocurrency industry being a new "Dot-Com Moment." However, as people see artificial intelligence reshaping their world in a more tangible and pervasive way every day, that narrative becomes increasingly harder to sell.

The discrepancy in search engine attention between crypto and AI is glaringly obvious. The last time cryptocurrency surpassed AI in Google search interest was during the FTX Flash Crash:

Will retail investors return to the crypto market?

The answer is: yes.

One could argue that retail investors have already returned today in a way to some form of a prediction market, but what they are buying are binary options on "when will the government shutdown end" rather than shitcoins. To get them to buy shitcoins en masse again, they need to feel they have a reasonable shot at profits.

The Core Source of Token Value: Protocol Revenue

In a world where a token cannot rely on a constant influx of speculative buyers, they must stand on their intrinsic value.

After five years of experimentation, the painful truth has become evident: the only meaningful form of token value accumulation is a claim on protocol revenue (be it past, current, or future).

All these various forms of real value accumulation ultimately boil down to a claim on protocol revenue or assets:

· Dividends

· Buybacks

· Fee Burns

· Treasury Control

This does not mean that a protocol must execute these measures today to have value. In the past, I faced criticism for stating that I hoped the protocol I was bullish on would reinvest revenue instead of conducting buybacks. However, protocols need to have the ability in the future to initiate these value accrual mechanisms, ideally through governance voting or meeting explicit criteria. Vague promises are no longer sufficient.

Fortunately, for savvy investors, this fundamental data is readily available on platforms like DefiLlama, covering thousands of protocols.

A quick look at the top protocols ranked by revenue in the past 30 days clearly shows a pattern: Stablecoin Issuers and Derivatives Platforms take the lead, while Launchpads (Token Issuance Platforms), Trading Apps, CDPs (Collateralized Debt Positions), Wallets, Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs), and Lending Protocols also make a showing.

Some key conclusions to note:

1. Stablecoins and Perpetual Contracts are the two most profitable businesses in the current crypto industry

2. Trading-related businesses remain highly profitable

Overall, businesses supporting trading are lucrative. However, if the market enters a prolonged bear market, revenue from trading-related activities may face significant risks unless protocols can pivot towards trading Real World Assets (RWAs), as attempted by Hyperliquid.

3. Controlling distribution channels is as important as building underlying protocols

I speculate that there may be a segment of hardcore DeFi users vehemently against trading apps or wallets being top revenue sources, as users can interact directly with the protocol to save costs. However, in reality, apps like Axiom and Phantom are extremely profitable.

Some crypto apps generate tens of millions of dollars in revenue monthly. If the protocol you're focused on hasn't reached that level yet, that's okay. As someone responsible for DefiLlama's revenue, I know firsthand that developing a product that a market is willing to pay for takes time. But the key is, there must be a path to profitability.

The era of playtime is over.

Value-Oriented Crypto World: Investment Framework Analysis

When looking for investment tokens in the coming years, the strong-performing tokens should meet the following criteria:

1. Claim on Protocol Revenue or Clear Transparent Revenue Claim Path

2. Stable and Sustainable Income and Revenue

3. Market Cap Reasonably Multiple to Past Revenue

Instead of just talking theory, let's look at a few specific examples:

Curve Finance

Curve Finance has achieved stable and sustained revenue growth over the past three years, even as its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) has decreased. Ultimately, its FDV has fallen to less than 8 times Curve's past month's annualized revenue.

Due to bribes available to Curve token holders who lock their tokens, along with the long token release schedule, the actual yield on the token is much higher. The next thing to watch is whether Curve can maintain its revenue levels in the coming months.

Jupiter

Jupiter has solidified its position as one of the primary beneficiaries of the Solana ecosystem's prosperity. It is the most widely used DEX aggregator and perpetual decentralized exchange platform (perp DEX) on the Solana chain.

Additionally, Jupiter has made several strategic acquisitions, allowing it to expand to markets on other chains using its own distribution channels.

Notably, Jupiter's annualized income distributed to token holders is significant, accounting for approximately 25% of the circulating market cap, surpassing 10% of FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation).

Other compliant protocols: Hyperliquid, Sky, Aerodrome, and Pendle

Positive Signal: Beacon of Hope

The good news is that teams who truly care about their own survival are rapidly becoming aware of this. I anticipate that in the next few years, the pressure of being unable to endlessly dump tokens will lead more DeFi projects to develop actual revenue streams and tie their tokens to these income flows.

If you know where to look, the future is promising.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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