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WE-Launch
Google Executive Makes Millions Overnight through Insider Trading
This week's most trending Polymarket event was undoubtedly the sensational market on "Who will be the person with the top Google Annual Search Ranking in 2025?" Yesterday's market frenzy saw Pope Leo XIV maintaining the top spot with a stable probability of around 50% since the market opened. Global personalities such as Trump, Taylor Swift, and Musk also captured the market's attention — what was supposed to be a list of contenders among "celebrities."
The majority of traders have never seriously looked at those near-zero-weight options at the bottom of the market: Mikey Madison, Andy Byron, d4vd... Their presence seems merely to enrich the odds table, and no one really considers them as potential winners.
The Ignored "Whale" Contrarian Move
A week ago, while everyone focused on the fluctuations of these star-studded options, an address (0xafEe) made a large purchase at a very low price for the "d4vd = Yes" position. In a prediction market, price equals probability — and at that time, d4vd's probability was not only extremely low but almost negligible.
To others, this was just an insignificant "lottery position": options with a long-shot probability close to zero that could bring tens of times the return once the probability reaches 10%. The trader invested only $20,000 in this position, considering his trading history of nearly $10 million, making the "lottery position" argument more convincing.
The truly bizarre move occurred one week later.
With the timing of Google's release of the search ranking completely unknown, the trader suddenly began massive accumulation the day before yesterday. Instead of buying the "Yes" for popular figures, he aggressively bought up their "No" positions.
Pope Leo XIV, Trump, Taylor Swift, the newly elected mayor of New York... All options deemed "potential winners" by the market were emphatically denied by him with millions of dollars in real money.
This move, devoid of any hedging logic and price impact consideration, completely defied whale trading logic and did not even resemble typical investment behavior. Some in the market started to notice this contrarian whale, but most simply took him as a joke of "fool and his money."
Astonishing Market Reversal
However, just a few hours after he completed his purchases, Google unexpectedly released the annual search ranking. At the moment the rankings were announced, the entire market collectively froze — the top spot belonged not to the Pope, Trump, or any popular option but to the name with a long-shot probability close to zero, a name the trader didn't even bother to look up: d4vd.
The market exploded in an instant. Within a few seconds, the probability of d4vd surged vertically from the bottom of the chart to 99.9%, with all other options clearing to zero instantly. While the market was still trying to understand whether this was a bug in the Google system, someone had already noticed: the whale who had been "randomly trading" continuously had made a daily profit of over one million dollars.
His purchase of "d4vd = Yes" was a win, yielding nearly 20 times the investment. All his purchases of "Popular Figure = No" also won.
As people continued to scroll through his positions, they discovered that in another almost identical market, "2025 Google Annual Top 5 Search Person," he also won all positions, with nearly $500,000 invested across ten positions and a floating profit of $292,000. He also participated in seven markets regarding the Gemini new version release time, investing over $1 million, and still profiting on all.
In other words, as long as it's related to Google, he seems to never make a wrong bet.
More Terrifying Than Insider Trading: The "Rewriter"
When people began to characterize this as a Google insider using information asymmetry to profit, a deeper on-chain investigation pushed this event in a more unsettling direction. Analysis revealed that the trader's address was adorableraccoon.eth, and according to on-chain records, he had previously deposited over $15 million worth of ETH into Aave before November 4th.
With on-chain assets alone exceeding $15 million, this is clearly not a wealth level attainable by an average Google employee. More and more signs indicate that this person is highly likely not just an ordinary engineer but deeply embedded in the Google core system, perhaps even holding decision-making power within Google's upper echelons.
With this in mind, a more dangerous question arises: what if he not only knew the outcomes in advance but also had the ability to manipulate them?
The Google Yearly Search Chart is not solely determined by search volume but relies on an internal algorithm highly sensitive to instantaneous search spikes. In theory, as long as one understands the algorithm's parameters, weights, and thresholds, it's possible to easily propel a name to "skyrocket" on the list. For a true Google executive with authority, making a name explosively top the chart is not an unattainable task. In this framework, the prediction market is not a tool for predicting the future but rather an arbitrage instrument that some can use based on their position, manipulating the future through a secretive decision chain.
If this wealthy Google executive indeed has the ability to manipulate the algorithm, then all prediction markets related to Google would not just be a channel for him to exploit information asymmetry for profit; as long as he is willing, he could even "fine-tune" the world line, steering it towards the direction most favorable to himself.
Conclusion
A person holding key decision-making power, for the first time in the open market, has demonstrated that he can transform the prediction market from a "settlement platform for information asymmetry discounting" into a "tool for altering reality."
The prediction market has always been seen as a reverse search for truth, a price mechanism driven by collective wisdom; yet in this event, it has been shown for the first time that it can be used by certain individuals with system access to manipulate the world line.
What he is betting on is not just the future, but the future he can create.
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Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has shown strong momentum across multiple dimensions. The mainstream discussion has focused on Coinbase's official entry into the prediction market through the acquisition of The Clearing Company, as well as the intense controversy within the AAVE community regarding token incentives and governance rights.
In terms of ecosystem development, Solana has introduced the innovative Kora fee layer aimed at reducing user transaction costs; meanwhile, the Perp DEX competition has intensified, with the showdown between Hyperliquid and Lighter sparking widespread community discussion on the future of decentralized derivatives.
This week, Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, marking another significant move to deepen its presence in this field after last week's announcement of launching a prediction market on its platform.
The Clearing Company's founder, Toni Gemayel, and the team will join Coinbase to jointly drive the development of the prediction market business.
Coinbase's Product Lead, Shan Aggarwal, stated that the growth of the prediction market is still in its early stages and predicts that 2026 will be the breakout year for this field.
The community has reacted positively to this, generally believing that Coinbase's entry will bring significant traffic and compliance advantages to the prediction market. However, this has also sparked discussions about the industry's competitive landscape.
Jai Bhavnani, Founder of Rivalry, commented that for startups, if their product model proves to be successful, industry giants like Coinbase have ample reason to replicate it.
This serves as a reminder to all entrepreneurs in the crypto space that they must build significant moats to withstand competition pressure from these giants.
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Meanwhile, Kalshi announced its support for the BNB Chain (BSC), allowing users to deposit and withdraw BNB and USDT via the BSC network.
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The community's reaction was polarized. Some criticized Stani for adopting a "double standard" in governance and questioned whether his team had siphoned off protocol revenue, while others supported his cautious stance, arguing that significant governance changes require more thorough discussion.
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Despite governance disputes putting pressure on the AAVE token price, on-chain data shows that Stani Kulechov himself has purchased millions of dollars' worth of AAVE in the past few hours.
Simultaneously, a whale address, 0xDDC4, which had been quiet for 6 months, once again spent 500 ETH (approximately $1.53 million) to purchase 9,629 AAVE tokens. Data indicates that this whale has accumulated nearly 40,000 AAVE over the past year but is currently in an unrealized loss position.
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In terms of ecosystem development, Solana has introduced the innovative Kora fee layer aimed at reducing user transaction costs; meanwhile, the Perp DEX competition has intensified, with the showdown between Hyperliquid and Lighter sparking widespread community discussion on the future of decentralized derivatives.
This week, Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, marking another significant move to deepen its presence in this field after last week's announcement of launching a prediction market on its platform.
The Clearing Company's founder, Toni Gemayel, and the team will join Coinbase to jointly drive the development of the prediction market business.
Coinbase's Product Lead, Shan Aggarwal, stated that the growth of the prediction market is still in its early stages and predicts that 2026 will be the breakout year for this field.
The community has reacted positively to this, generally believing that Coinbase's entry will bring significant traffic and compliance advantages to the prediction market. However, this has also sparked discussions about the industry's competitive landscape.
Jai Bhavnani, Founder of Rivalry, commented that for startups, if their product model proves to be successful, industry giants like Coinbase have ample reason to replicate it.
This serves as a reminder to all entrepreneurs in the crypto space that they must build significant moats to withstand competition pressure from these giants.
Regulated prediction market platform Kalshi launched its research arm, Kalshi Research, this week, aimed at opening its internal data to the academic community and researchers to facilitate exploration of prediction market-related topics.
Its inaugural research report highlights Kalshi's outperformance in predicting inflation compared to Wall Street's traditional models. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara commented that the power of prediction markets lies in the valuable data they generate, and it is now time to better utilize this data.
Meanwhile, Kalshi announced its support for the BNB Chain (BSC), allowing users to deposit and withdraw BNB and USDT via the BSC network.
This move is seen as a significant step for Kalshi to open its platform to a broader crypto user base, aiming to unlock access to the world's largest prediction market. Furthermore, Kalshi also revealed plans to host the first Prediction Market Summit in 2026 to further drive industry engagement and development.
The AAVE community recently engaged in heated debates around an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) titled "AAVE Tokenomics Alignment Phase One - Ownership Governance," aiming to transfer ownership and control of the Aave brand from Aave Labs to Aave DAO.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly stated his intention to vote against the proposal, believing it oversimplifies the complex legal and operational structure, potentially slowing down the development process of core products like Aave V4.
The community's reaction was polarized. Some criticized Stani for adopting a "double standard" in governance and questioned whether his team had siphoned off protocol revenue, while others supported his cautious stance, arguing that significant governance changes require more thorough discussion.
This controversy highlights the tension between the ideal of DAO governance in DeFi projects and the actual power held by core development teams.
Despite governance disputes putting pressure on the AAVE token price, on-chain data shows that Stani Kulechov himself has purchased millions of dollars' worth of AAVE in the past few hours.
Simultaneously, a whale address, 0xDDC4, which had been quiet for 6 months, once again spent 500 ETH (approximately $1.53 million) to purchase 9,629 AAVE tokens. Data indicates that this whale has accumulated nearly 40,000 AAVE over the past year but is currently in an unrealized loss position.
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The article likened curators to asset managers in traditional finance, who design, deploy, and manage on-chain vaults, providing users with a one-click diversified investment portfolio.
Unlike traditional fund managers, DeFi curators execute strategies automatically through non-custodial smart contracts, allowing users to maintain full control of their assets. The article offered a new perspective on the specialization and risk management in the DeFi space.
Another widely circulated article, "Ethereum 2025: From Experiment to Global Infrastructure," provided a comprehensive summary of Ethereum's development over the past year. The article noted that 2025 is a crucial year for Ethereum's transition from an experimental project to global financial infrastructure. Through the Pectra and Fusaka hard forks, Ethereum achieved significant reductions in account abstraction and transaction costs.
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For example, on the SOL-USDC trading pair, HumidiFi is able to provide a highly competitive spread for large trades (0.4-1.6 bps), which is already better than the trading slippage of some mid-cap stocks in traditional markets.
Research suggests that propAMM is making the vision of the "Internet Capital Market" a reality, with Solana emerging as the prime venue for all of this to happen.
The competition in the perpetual contract DEX (Perp DEX) space is becoming increasingly heated.
In its latest official article, Hyperliquid has positioned its emerging competitor, Lighter, alongside centralized exchanges like Binance, referring to it as a platform utilizing a centralized sequencer. Hyperliquid emphasizes its transparency advantage of being "fully on-chain, operated by a validator network, and with no hidden state."
The community widely interprets this as Hyperliquid declaring "war" on Lighter. The technical differences between the two platforms have also become a focal point of discussion: Hyperliquid focuses on ultimate on-chain transparency, while Lighter emphasizes achieving "verifiable execution" through zero-knowledge proofs to provide users with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)-like trading experience.
This battle over the future direction of decentralized derivatives exchanges is expected to peak in 2026.
Meanwhile, discussions about Lighter's trading fees have surfaced. Some users have pointed out that Lighter charged as much as 81 basis points (0.81%) for a $2 million USD/JPY forex trade, far exceeding the near-zero spreads of traditional forex brokers.
Some argue that Lighter does not follow a B-book model that bets against market makers, instead anchoring its prices to the TradFi market, and the high fees may be related to the current liquidity or market maker balance incentives. Providing a more competitive spread for real-world assets (RWA) in the highly volatile crypto market is a key issue Lighter will need to address in the future.
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