The Democratic Party in the United States plans to legislate to restrict prediction markets, raising concerns about insider trading related to the war in Iran

According to market news, U.S. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that last Friday, someone placed a "very specific bet" on "the U.S. going to war with Iran on Saturday." He pointed out that it is clear that individuals close to Trump were aware of Saturday's actions in advance, and these bettors likely have insider information. Murphy warned that if such war gambling continues, those around the president may "push us into war" for profit.

Last Saturday, multiple related bets circulated widely on Polymarket. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Congressman Mike Levin are working on drafting a bill to strengthen regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin stated that profiting from foreknowledge of military actions "absolutely should be illegal." He noted that while the Commodity Exchange Act prohibits contracts related to events that "contravene public interest," such as war and terrorism, current rules grant prediction markets too much freedom.