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Analysis: Ethereum Hits New High as Momentum Shifts, Surging Market Leverage Raises Tail Risk
BlockBeats News, August 27th, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that a long-term holder exchanged 22,400 BTC for ETH, propelling Ethereum to a new all-time high last week and demonstrating a shift in market momentum. However, Bitcoin's recent price weakness may not be over yet, as a surge in leverage and significant fund rotation to Ethereum continue to put pressure on it in the short term. Bitcoin's perpetual futures nominal open interest (OI) has soared to a two-year high, exceeding 310,000 BTC (approximately $34 billion), increasing by 41,607 BTC in the past two months, with a spike of 13,472 BTC over the weekend, indicating a potential turning point. Bitcoin's annualized funding rate has jumped from 3% to nearly 11%, showing increasing aggressiveness in taking long positions during a period of relative price stagnation.
Lunde stated that the current situation is similar to the leverage accumulation in the summers of 2023 and 2024, both of which triggered violent liquidation cascades in August. The peak in OI occurred in the late stages of the month, suggesting that the market may enter a longer period of consolidation, with bottom-buyers potentially getting trapped. Lunde warned, "There is a high risk of a squeeze on long positions in the short term, so it is advisable to maintain a conservative position until excess leverage is cleared from the market.
Historically, Ethereum hitting all-time highs has often signaled the overall market top in the crypto market. The cycles of 2017 and 2021 showed a similar pattern: Ethereum breaking out, other crypto assets skyrocketing, and Bitcoin stagnating due to weakening demand, raising concerns that the bull market is nearing its end. However, the current BTC market dominance remains high at 58.6%, much higher than the previous peak of under 40%. With Ethereum showing relative strength and maturity, traders are watching to see if this cycle will follow the historical trajectory or deviate completely.
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