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Analysis: The US Stock Market Has Started the "Santa Claus Rally", with Investors Positioning Themselves Early for the Optimistic Outlook for 2026
BlockBeats News, December 23. The U.S. stock market kicked off the traditional "Santa Claus Rally", with major stock indices generally rising. Both gold and silver hit historical highs, with platinum also approaching a record high. The cryptocurrency market surged but then retraced. The S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday, erasing all of its December losses and is set to achieve an eighth consecutive monthly gain, marking the longest winning streak since 2018.
Behind this round of gains are multiple driving forces. Firstly, last Friday's record-breaking "Triple Witching Day" options expiration cleared out a significant amount of long positions in the 6700-6800 range for the S&P 500, providing upward momentum for stock prices. The VIX volatility index fell below 15, hitting a low not seen since August, with short-term implied volatility continuing to compress. Analysts believe that market maker hedging demand has shifted to trend-following, driving the market into a "slow climb" pace.
Secondly, seasonal factors have created a favorable environment, as historical data shows that the end of the year is usually a strong period for the stock market. In addition, investors are positioning themselves early for optimistic expectations in 2026, including accelerated GDP and corporate earnings growth, as well as the potential transformation of AI trading. Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that there is a recession risk next year if the Fed does not continue cutting rates, further boosting risk appetite with dovish remarks. From a technical perspective, the next psychological barrier for the market is the 7000 level for the S&P 500. (Wall Street News)
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