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「Doomsday Doctor」 Uncommonly Optimistic: U.S. Stock Market Will Not Collapse, Technology Will Enable America to "Reverse Fate"
BlockBeats News, November 27th: For nearly two decades, the renowned economist Nouriel Roubini has been known as the "Dr. Doom." This economist believes that after a brief growth cooldown, the United States will experience a strong rebound driven by technology and capital expenditure, allowing it to maintain its global leadership position.
He pointed out that, first, market discipline, rational advisors, and the Federal Reserve's independence provided protection against the worst policies following the "liberation day." Due to a subsequent rapid and substantial market correction, Trump had to compromise and instead negotiate a more reasonable trade agreement. The currently popular view—that the U.S. stock market is in a huge bubble destined to burst—is incorrect in the medium term.
Roubini noted that accelerated GDP growth could lead to rising real bond yields, but a massive positive total supply shock driven by technology may over time push inflation down to near-zero levels as the production cost of goods and services sharply declines and productivity growth rises. Therefore, the long-term net impact on nominal bond yields may offset each other.
He believes that even the U.S.' external debt is sustainable because a surge in technology-driven capital expenditure resulting in a larger current account deficit will be offset by capital inflows into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. At that time, the U.S. will look like an emerging market economy where natural resources or productivity boom has brought an investment surge. (Jin Shi)
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