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MyStonks Research Institute: US Non-Farm Payrolls Data Significantly Revised Downward, CPI and Fed Decision in Focus
BlockBeats News, September 10th, the U.S. government said on Tuesday that in the 12 months ending in March of this year, the actual number of new jobs in the United States may have been reduced by 911,000 from previous estimates. This revision shows that job growth was already weakening before Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods.
Previously, economists had expected that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might reduce the level of employment from April 2024 to March 2025 by 400,000 to 1 million jobs. The level of employment from April 2023 to March 2024 had already been reduced by 598,000 jobs. This benchmark revision follows last Friday's report—job growth in August was almost stagnant, and June even saw the first job decline in four and a half years.
Analysis from the MyStonks Research Institute suggests that the labor market is not only affected by trade policy uncertainty but also under pressure due to the White House's tightening immigration policy, limiting labor supply. At the same time, businesses accelerating the application of artificial intelligence and automation have also restrained the demand for manpower.
Most economists believe that the downward revision of employment data has limited impact on monetary policy. The Fed is expected to resume rate cuts in the early hours of September 19th (Thursday, Beijing time), after pausing the easing cycle in January due to tariff uncertainty.
The MyStonks Research Institute will continue to monitor the CPI data released on September 11th to further assess the Fed's policy path.
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