The probability of a Fed rate cut in January has decreased to 19.9%, while the probability of rates staying unchanged in March is at 44.7%.

BlockBeats News, December 22nd, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped below 20%, now at 19.9%, with the probability of unchanged rates at 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a January rate cut by the Fed had risen to 31%.

The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.8%.

The dates of the next two FOMC meetings by the Fed are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.