U.S. GDP Growth Surges Rate Cut Fear Could Become "Bubble Burst," January Rate Cut 25 Basis Points Probability Falls to 13.3%

BlockBeats News, December 23rd, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, after today's release of US macroeconomic data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a January rate cut by the Fed rose to 31%. The initial estimate of the US third-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate, adjusted for inflation, recorded 4.3%, with the US GDP growth rate soaring to the strongest pace since the fourth quarter of 2023.

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4.9%.

The dates of the Fed's next two FOMC meetings are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.