「Fed Whispers」: Core Goods Prices Expected to Drop in August PCE, But Actually Rise in CPI

BlockBeats News, September 12th, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed Whisperer," tweeted on social media that due to significant price drops in certain product categories in August with higher weight in PCE than CPI, a larger gap or "wedge gap" has formed between core PCE and core CPI last month.

By deducing PCE from CPI and PPI data, analysts expect that the core inflation indicator favored by the Fed saw a month-over-month increase of about 0.20% last month (compared to CPI's 0.35%), which will keep the 12-month annual rate at 2.9%.

Of particular note is the expected decline in core goods prices in August PCE—part of which actually rose in CPI.

The overall price is expected to increase by 0.24% month-over-month, pushing the 12-month annual rate to 2.7%.