QCP Capital: If global economic growth remains robust, the US dollar is highly likely to weaken from here
BlockBeats News, September 3rd - QCP Capital posted in its official channel, stating that as we enter September, the market focus has shifted from the rate cut magnitude to the Fed's independence. The rise in term premia and the lowering of the USD downcycle threshold indicate a steepening yield curve, a weaker dollar, and provide support for gold and Bitcoin as hedging tools.
The Jackson Hole meeting has shifted the focus to a risk-oriented labor market cooling, making a September rate cut still a possibility. Two rate cuts within the year seem reasonable; currently, investors need to monitor the balance between the inflation rate and tariff-driven inflation expectations. If global economic growth remains resilient, the dollar is highly likely to weaken from here.
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The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 86.4%, remaining at a high level.
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