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Ether is gaining momentum as supply constraints, surging demand, and bullish technical indicators converge, with ETH potentially targeting $9,000.

Key takeaways:

After a sluggish market cycle, $ETH’s 50% rally in two weeks has reignited investor interest. Yet, at $3,730, ETH remains 23% below its November 2021 all-time high. Analysts now speculate that its price could more than double from current levels.

Is Ethereum’s biggest rally still ahead? Onchain data, trading activity, and blockchain metrics all indicate that this uptrend may only be in its early stages.

Despite its strong rally, ETH continues to trail broader market momentum. Glassnode data shows the MVRV Z-score — measuring Ethereum’s market cap against its realized cap (total capital invested) — remains significantly below previous cycle peaks. While ETH has exited the "bearish" zone, it still trades far from levels typically seen at market tops, suggesting room for further upside.

ETH MVRV Z-score. Source: Glassnode

Compared to Bitcoin, ETH remains significantly behind. Over the past year, BTC surged 74% while ETH declined 28%, widening the performance gap. However, BTC’s dominance now sits at historically high levels, suggesting ETH may be under-owned and undervalued. Analysts at Bitcoin Vector note that ETH appears primed for a catch-up rally, potentially signaling an upcoming market rotation.

In the near term, $4,000 serves as a crucial psychological and technical resistance level. A decisive breakout above this threshold could trigger accelerated upward momentum.

From a technical standpoint, Elliott Wave theory—which identifies recurring five-wave price patterns driven by market psychology—suggests ETH is currently in its third impulsive wave. An analysis by XForceGlobal (partially validated but slightly ahead of schedule) projects this phase could propel ETH toward $9,000 by early 2026, assuming supportive macro conditions. If this pattern holds, Ethereum could see a major breakout before the next market correction.

These fundamentals suggest ETH's rally is supported by real capital inflows and supply constraints, not just speculative trading. With shrinking liquidity and growing adoption, the setup favors continued upside.

ETH supply by investor behavior: first buyers. Source: Glassnode

Beyond speculation, Ether’s value depends on actual usage, and that activity is growing in subtle but significant ways.

While average transaction fees have dropped to historic lows—just 0.0004 ETH per transfer—that doesn’t mean Ethereum is quiet. Rather, it reflects improved efficiency, especially with much of the load now handled by layer 2s. To properly gauge demand on the network, fees in ETH can mislead; gas offers a clearer view of the actual computational work being consumed.

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