Goldman Sachs: Expects Trump Administration's Base Tariff Rate to Increase to 15%

BlockBeats News, July 23rd, Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle expects that the US base "parity" tariff rate will be increased from 10% to 15%, with copper and key mineral tariffs reaching 50%—this move could exacerbate inflationary pressures and dampen economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the "preliminary view" of the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 core inflation forecast from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%.

Mericle stated that the tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that the tariffs will reduce this year's GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point, by 0.4 percentage point in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage point in 2027. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%. (Jinshi)