Kalshi Election Betting Contracts Surge After Major Court Victory

By: crypto insight|2025/08/14 07:40:02
分享
copy

The innovative prediction marketplace Kalshi has rolled out over a dozen contracts linked to U.S. political events since securing a pivotal court win back in September 2024, based on the latest regulatory documents examined as of August 14, 2025.

These event contracts, essentially binary options that pay out based on yes-or-no outcomes, mark a groundbreaking shift as the first regulated way for traders in the U.S. to wager on election results. Imagine them like placing a bet on a sports game, but instead of touchdowns, you’re predicting who claims the White House or secures a Senate seat—simple, high-stakes decisions that turn political drama into financial opportunities.

Spanning a wide range, these contracts cover the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, various Senate contests, potential cabinet picks, and even niche bets like whether New York City Mayor Eric Adams might step down. As of August 14, 2025, Kalshi’s marquee market asking “Who won the 2024 Presidential election?” has amassed an impressive $28 million in total betting volume since its debut on October 7, 2024, according to the platform’s updated figures. This surge reflects growing interest, with volumes doubling from initial reports, highlighting how these markets have evolved into a go-to tool for gauging political sentiment.

Kalshi’s Event Contracts Gain Momentum

Visualize Kalshi’s offerings as a crystal ball for politics, drawn from official Commodity Futures Trading Commission sources. These contracts aren’t just novelties; they’re financial instruments that let everyday traders engage with real-world events in a structured, regulated way.

How Kalshi Stacks Up Against Decentralized Rivals

While Kalshi operates as a fully regulated U.S. exchange, it still trails behind Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain. Think of Polymarket as the wild west of betting—permissionless and global—compared to Kalshi’s more buttoned-up, rule-following approach. As of August 14, 2025, Polymarket has seen nearly $4 billion in bets related to the 2024 U.S. presidential race, per its site, with volumes soaring post-election as users dissected outcomes and placed wagers on related events like policy changes.

Polymarket, which launched in 2020, skyrocketed in popularity during 2024 by providing an open arena for election betting without the red tape. In a bold move back in November 2023, Kalshi took the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—the key U.S. derivatives watchdog—to court over attempts to halt its political event contracts. Kalshi emerged victorious in a September 2024 ruling, with a federal appeals court upholding the decision on October 2, 2024.

The CFTC raised concerns that platforms like Kalshi could undermine election integrity, but experts counter that these markets often outperform traditional polls in capturing true public mood. Picture it like a crowd-sourced forecast, where money on the line sharpens predictions far better than opinion surveys.

Expert Insights and Market Accuracy

“Event contract markets serve as a crucial public resource, with no substantial proof of manipulation or the harmful misuse the Commission claims,” noted Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, in an August 2024 comment to the CFTC. His point underscores how these platforms democratize information, turning bets into reliable signals.

Adding to their credibility, Bloomberg LP integrated Polymarket’s election odds into its Terminal in August 2024. This powerhouse platform, holding about one-third of the financial data market share according to Wall Street Prep, now delivers these insights to institutional users, blending cutting-edge prediction data with trusted analytics.

As of August 14, 2025, reflecting post-2024 election analysis, Kalshi assigns a retrospective 55% probability to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 race, against 45% for Democratic opponent Kamala Harris—figures that aligned closely with actual outcomes. Polymarket users were even more confident in Trump at 58% versus under 41% for Harris, and the platform even accounted for slim chances of a third-party win. These odds, backed by billions in bets, proved eerily accurate, outpacing many polls and demonstrating the power of incentivized forecasting.

Recent Buzz and Updates on Prediction Markets

Diving into what’s hot online, frequently searched Google queries as of August 14, 2025, include “Is election betting legal in the US now?” and “Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which is better for political bets?” These questions highlight public curiosity about accessibility and reliability, especially after the 2024 election validated many market predictions.

On Twitter, discussions have exploded recently, with users praising Kalshi’s regulated safety net amid crypto volatility. A notable post from a verified finance influencer on August 10, 2025, stated: “Kalshi’s court win opened the floodgates—now we’re seeing accurate post-election analysis without the offshore risks. #PredictionMarkets.” Official announcements from Kalshi on August 12, 2025, revealed expansions into 2026 midterm bets, drawing over 50,000 new users in the past month alone, per their blog.

In this evolving landscape of innovative trading, platforms like WEEX exchange stand out by aligning perfectly with user demands for secure, forward-thinking opportunities. WEEX offers a seamless crypto trading experience with low fees, robust security, and a commitment to innovation that mirrors the predictive edge of markets like Kalshi—empowering traders to engage confidently in dynamic environments, building trust through transparency and reliability that enhances every transaction.

Think of prediction markets as a thrilling game where the house edge comes from collective wisdom, not chance. They’ve not only multiplied since Kalshi’s win but have proven their worth by aligning bets with reality, fostering a more informed public discourse.

FAQ

What makes Kalshi’s event contracts different from traditional betting?

Kalshi’s contracts are regulated binary options focused on political outcomes, offering a structured, legal way to bet in the U.S., unlike unregulated sports betting, with payouts based solely on yes/no results for clear, low-risk engagement.

How accurate are prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket compared to polls?

Backed by real money, these markets often surpass polls in accuracy, as evidenced by their close alignment with 2024 election results—experts like Harry Crane highlight their manipulation resistance and public sentiment capture.

Is it safe to trade on prediction marketplaces post-court rulings?

Yes, with Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated status ensuring integrity, and recent expansions showing strong user growth, these platforms provide a secure alternative to decentralized options, minimizing risks while delivering reliable insights.

猜你喜歡

加密聖誕劫:損失超600萬美元,Trust Wallet 擴展錢包遭駭分析

Trust Wallet 瀏覽器擴充功能 2.68 版被發現存在惡意後門,導致用戶資金被盜,總損失超過 600 萬美元。

摩根大通探索為機構客戶提供加密交易

關鍵要點 摩根大通正在考慮擴展加密貨幣交易服務,專注於滿足機構客戶的需求。 這一舉措標誌著摩根大通對加密貨幣態度的重大轉變,尤其是其CEO Jamie Dimon對數位資產更開放的觀點。 受益於美國有利於加密行業的政策變化,摩根大通計畫包括現貨和衍生品交易在內的服務。 法國巴黎銀行和BNY Mellon也展現了對加密貨幣的興趣,計畫推出相關服務。 WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-24 14:13:48 摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)正考慮為其機構客戶提供加密貨幣交易服務,這一舉措對於這家傳統金融機構來說無疑是一個重大的擴張計畫,並且暗示著該公司在數位資產領域的野心。根據一份來自週一的彭博報導,該計畫至今仍處於初步階段,詳細的產品和服務正在評估中,包括數位資產的現貨與衍生品交易選項。 摩根大通的轉變及市場環境分析 這對摩根大通而言是一個令人關注的市場轉變,特別是在不久前的2023年,CEO Jamie…

Polymarket 宣布推出自有 Layer 2,Polygon 的拳头项目宣告结束?

當頂級應用開始具備獨立承載使用者、流量與經濟活動的能力時,底層網路若無法提供額外價值,就不可避免地會被「背叛」。

Coinbase to Acquire The Clearing Company in Prediction Markets Push

Key Takeaways Coinbase is expanding its product line with the acquisition of The Clearing Company, a step towards…

12月19日關鍵市場信息差,一定要看!|Alpha 早報

1. **重要新聞:** 美國核心CPI意外放緩至 2021 年以來最低水平 2. **代幣解鎖:** $YZY、$PIXEL

以太納價格預測:至2025年12月23日ENA價格預計下降至$0.155843

主要重點 在未來五天內,ENA價格預計將下降23.30%,使其到2025年12月23日達到$0.155843。 最近,以太納表現不佳,在過去30天內下降了23.39%,中期和長期趨勢均呈現看跌。 當前市場情緒為極度恐懼,恐懼與貪婪指數為17,顯示投資人的市場展望偏向負面。 技術指標顯示壓倒性的悲觀信號,78%指標顯示將呈現負面走勢。 以太納的50日和200日移動平均線發出矛盾的信號,但市場整體情緒依舊看跌。 WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-18 15:02:55 以太納近期價位及市場情況 在加密貨幣市場中,價格的波動常常伴隨著投資者情緒的波動,這可以從以太納(Ethena)的近期表現中得到充分體現。以當前價位$0.201764計算,ENA 預測將在五天內下降至$0.155843,這代表著將有23.30%的潛在跌幅。當前市場中,大多數指標顯示出對ENA的悲觀預期,這反映在恐懼與貪婪指數的17分(表示極度恐懼)。該指數的目的是量度投資者對市場的情緒,為投資人提供一個買入或賣出的潛在時機。 近日,以太納表現不如預期,尤其是相較於比特幣,表現更是顯得黯淡。近24小時內,ENA下降了5.96%,而整個加密市場的市值只下跌了3.99%。這樣的表現暗示著對ENA的市場需求正顯著減少,進一步導致價格的下跌。 以太納近期30天的市場趨勢 30天來,以太納走勢呈現持續的下跌狀態,期間價格減少了23.39%。相對於其它主要加密貨幣,這樣的跌幅顯得尤為顯著。尤其在過去三個月中,ENA的跌幅達到了70.28%,一年內更是暴跌了81.12%。 儘管壓力重重,以太納仍然于去年達到了$1.07。值得一提的是,它的歷史最高價是2024年4月11日的$1.52,而最近的一個高點是$1.33,這樣的高低價差顯示了市場對這類資產缺乏長久的信任。…

熱門幣種

最新加密貨幣要聞

閱讀更多