Next year, will Pump.fun still be able to tell a new story?

By: blockbeats|2025/12/18 12:00:01
0
Share
copy
Original Article Title: Pump's Year Ahead: Reflections on Resilience, Creator Economics, and the Search for Direction
Original Article Author: @simononchain, Crypto KOL
Original Article Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

The following content is excerpted from Delphi's upcoming "2026 App Outlook Report," focusing on Pump(.)fun— one of the consumer apps we are most interested in next year.

Since we published our initial Pump report (pre-funding), many things have changed. Many of the dynamics we predicted have been validated, but there are also areas where expectations have not been met, leaving users and investors disappointed. However, Pump's core challenges remain.

To achieve Pump's grand vision, the team needs to find a balance between the short-term profit-driven nature of the crypto industry and its long-term platform vision. It is worth noting that once a project launches a token, the operational environment shifts; the token itself becomes an independent product with inherent reflexivity and continues to influence user expectations, and Pump is no exception.

Since completing the funding, the Pump team has been increasingly investing in native crypto streaming, but the development in this area has not been as smooth as we expected, at least not yet at the desired level.

Pump has not successfully attracted core creators from outside the crypto ecosystem, and the rise of CCM Metaverse on the Pump platform has been short-lived. The most notable moment came from the "Bagwork" event, which not only demonstrated the potential of creator-driven tokens but also revealed structural issues hindering the development of this model.

Next year, will Pump.fun still be able to tell a new story?

This phenomenon was led by a group of teenagers who, with partial support from Pump, carried out a series of controversial events: stealing Bradley Martyn's hat, storming the Dodgers game venue, rushing onto the Knicks court, and even getting Pumpfun and Bagwork tattoos.

The rise of @onlybagwork was nearly perfectly synchronized with Pump.fun's peak hype in mid-September. At that time, $PUMP's fully diluted valuation (FDV) reached around $8.5 billion, and Bagwork's market cap also briefly surpassed $50 million.

However, since then, no creator token has been able to come close to such organic potential or reach a similar peak valuation.

The events at the Knicks arena happened more recently, long after the initial hype, and now Bagwork's market cap is only slightly above $2 million.

Bagwork is one of the few cases in the Pump streaming experiment that truly ran as expected. The Bagwork team earned over 2300 SOL in creator revenue through $BAGWORK's transaction fees (equivalent to around $300,000 at current prices).

It's worth noting that all of this was achieved without the team selling their holdings. The viral event directly converted into attention, trading volume, and fee revenue, creating the closest example Pump has had to a true creator token flywheel effect to date.

However, aside from Bagwork, Pump continues to struggle to realize its streaming vision. Creator tokens have consistently failed to hold their value. This can be traced back to a fundamental issue: the token is part of the product itself.

Currently, the economic rationale for owning or supporting a streamer token remains unclear. Bagwork's early success quickly faded, and since then, every major streamer token has failed to garner similar attention, ultimately dwindling to near zero.

Creators can earn short-term gains through CCM's fee structure, but the reputational risks associated with rug-pull tokens make this model unattractive to bigger names and more established creators who could have helped the platform reach a wider audience. From a trader's perspective, these tokens still exist in a zero-sum game environment rather than a true community.

This is the most critical issue Pump needs to address as it steps into 2026.

Currently, the team has yet to make meaningful attempts at a deeper creator incentive mechanism, and airdrop distribution remains untouched. Apart from informal support provided during the Bagwork craze, Pump has not taken any coordinated measures such as targeted airdrops, creator rewards, or other incentive mechanisms that could have been used to kickstart early activity, create more PvE (player versus environment) incentives, and provide a testing ground for creators without immediately disrupting their community ecosystem.

The good news is that this grants Pump significant flexibility.

The untapped "Community & Ecosystem Initiatives" fund remains a key lever the team can leverage as the model matures. If Pump can design a sustainable creator token incentive structure, it will open up a whole new economic category for creators looking to leverage cryptographic mechanisms for monetization and audience expansion.

Despite the significant potential upside, streaming will continue to perform as a series of transient hype cycles rather than a persistent and replicable vertical field.

On the token front, a key catalyst driving $PUMP from around 0.025 to 0.085 was the team's decision to allocate 100% of net revenue to buybacks.

Pump initially planned to allocate around a quarter of revenue to buybacks but shifted to a buyback model heavily inspired by Hyperliquid. This shift was made after the market clearly signaled that a partial buyback model would not be well-received. This change ignited one of the strongest large-cap token rebounds this year in a liquidity-scarce and challenging altcoin market.

From a buyback-to-market cap ratio perspective, currently, no major token has a lower trading multiple.

Based on current data, Pump has an annualized revenue of $4.22 billion, a market cap of $18.4 billion, implying a market cap/revenue ratio (MC/Rev) of 4.36x and an annual buyback yield of approximately 12.8%. This level is significantly lower than other large-cap tokens, including Hyperliquid's approximately 8.01x MC/Rev and 3.34% yield.

Nevertheless, the market remains skeptical of Pump's long-term business prospects.

Market concerns may include: the team's ability to continually roll out meaningful products; the future impact of upcoming token supply unlocks, with around 40% of the supply still locked; and the uncertainty surrounding the final distribution of airdrops and creator incentive allocations. Additionally, doubts persist about the overall sustainability of the Meme coin activity in the crypto market, the reduction in end-user activity, and the sustainability of Pump's revenue base.

Despite these concerns, Pump continues to dominate in the Meme coin issuance platform space, earning (and buying back) approximately $1 million daily even in the current extremely challenging market environment.

The daily Launchpad revenue of Pump, which neared a peak of around $14 million at the beginning of the year, has significantly dropped by nearly 85% to approximately $2 million. However, competitors only briefly posed a threat to Pump's position and failed to bring a substantial challenge. This aligns with our initial prediction in the early reports regarding the brief challenge stages from Bonk and Raydium: even amidst a contraction in periodic trading volume, Pump has maintained its structural advantage, holding the dominant share of industry activity.

The acquisition of Padre has supported such a view: Pump is intentionally expanding beyond Solana into a multi-chain ecosystem and has added support for BNB ecosystem assets through the Padre frontend. This also aligns with our earlier prediction that Pump would eventually acquire an endpoint or endpoint-related asset to strengthen user acquisition channels and integrate more user journeys.

In addition to these actions, the team has recently maintained a low-key strategy. There are plans for an investor call, but as of the time of writing, it has not yet taken place, so there may be more detailed information to be disclosed later.

The leadership team has also expressed interest in a broader Initial Community Offering (ICO) category, although we believe this is not a core area of Pump's current brand positioning or product advantage. Pump initially experimented with the Believe model but failed to gain practical market attention. MetaDAO has now become a leader in the "high-quality founder + community" funding space.

Furthermore, the culture and structure of ICOs seem somewhat incongruent with Pump's brand positioning. Pump's brand core revolves around speculation, speed, and Meme culture for creators, rather than long-term governance or systems based on Futarchy. If Pump wants to succeed in the ICO space, they would need to lean more towards governance-focused structures and attract non-crypto teams looking to operate on-chain. However, this does not fully align with the current needs and positioning of Pump's users and creators. While theoretically, if the team were to take practical action, ICOs could bring some potential benefits, we believe this is more of a secondary or optional direction rather than a natural extension of Pump's existing flywheel effect in 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026, Pump faces key challenges in whether they can ultimately establish a creator token model that is incentive compatible, if they can achieve substantial expansion into multi-chain markets through Padre, how to manage the risk of token unlocks and declining revenue visibility, and which product vertical to focus on as their main thrust. Currently, Pump's strategy appears to be scattered across multiple directions, including streaming, ICOs, and mobile.

At some point in the future, the team may need to specifically focus on a core breakthrough. For much of 2025, this breakthrough seemed to be streaming, but that is no longer clear.

A bigger question is whether Pump can still attract larger non-crypto-native creators. This may require a redesign of the creator token flywheel mechanism, providing a stronger, longer-term incentive to support viral propagation beyond the crypto-native user base. Pump has the fundamental conditions to achieve this goal. The 2025 Bagwork craze briefly demonstrated the potential success of this pattern, with Pump seemingly on the verge of bridging the gap.

Furthermore, Pump still has ample room to expand its product suite. One strategic direction the team should seriously consider is entering into iGaming or casino-related verticals. Adopting a model similar to Kick or Stake aligns naturally with Pump's speculation-driven user base. This direction will deeply synergize with its meme coin and streaming strategic objectives, and the profit potential in this sector has already been validated.

Shuffle's net gambling revenue and weekly lottery distribution demonstrate the enormous potential of this sector when successfully executed.

Pump's mobile application is another advantage that has not been fully leveraged. Further expanding into the mobile space can broaden user acquisition channels, make the product more accessible to mainstream users, and provide more monetization scenarios for creators. If combined with iGaming, this can not only significantly expand Pump's potential audience but also strengthen the platform's existing successful elements.

Despite the uncertainty, Pump remains one of the most resilient consumer applications in this cycle, maintaining its leadership position even as the market landscape shifts. Substantial progress in any key direction could trigger a significant shift in market sentiment and help Pump achieve a breakthrough, attracting a broader non-crypto-native user base.

Original Post Link

You may also like

WEEX AI Trading Hackathon Rules & Guidelines

This article explains the rules, requirements, and prize structure for the WEEX AI Trading Hackathon Finals, where finalists compete using AI-driven trading strategies under real market conditions.

 

From 0 to $1 Million: Five Steps to Outperform the Market Through Wallet Tracking

If you can grasp the system and see transactions as a byproduct of building a better life, then your chances of success will be much greater.

Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?

The next chapter in the crypto industry will undoubtedly be written by Crypto-empowered Stocks.

February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

1. On-chain Flows: $508.2M USD inflow to Ethereum today; $390.8M USD outflow from Arbitrum 2. Biggest Gainers/Losers: $HBTC, $AIO 3. Top News: Current Bitcoin weekly RSI oversold signal comparable to June 2022

China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started

Kyle knew his game, so he decided to focus on playing the game he was good at and interested in.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more